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LVRG ScrapbookWednesday, July 01, 1987:

Bryan Kavanagh predicts the Recession We Had To Have

[T]here is necessarily an inverse relationship between land price (uncollected rent revenue) and the natural return to labour and capital. This simple, and often ignored, law can be used to forecast periods of recession or depression. That is, as land prices rise sharply across the board, it can be accepted that the productive side of the economy will wilt — that unemployment will increase and the return on capital will wane. It is empirical study of the effects of this natural law which allows Georgists to predict the recession which will follow the peak of the next worldwide land boom in 1991/92.

. . .

[Extract from “Getting it Right at Local Government”, The Valuer, July 1987, pp. 560–62 (arbitrarily dated the 1st of the month). Posted here on Dec.10, 2009.]

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